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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a simple pattern. It frequently functions as a form of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who engineered the largest turnaround is handed the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual debate about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or merely the most shocking upset.

Yet the latest field is profoundly unique. The pool of candidates is exceptionally strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with recent division winners fading and longtime underperformers rising in unison. In an ordinary year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this chaotic and entertaining year, he's up against several other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the ideal ballot should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his rare talent. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative passing attack that creates wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to conjure magic from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Almost every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a typical season, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current is not a normal season!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. However he falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a certainty following his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and experience, he trusted newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year setback caused the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has regressed after that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him just one spot ahead of peers.

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